Money Maker Learn

Understand the evidence behind better decisions

Understand the market concepts, historical evidence and decision principles behind the Money Maker decision framework.

Foundational lessons

• Evidence-Led Investing — Evidence-led investing uses observable market facts and historical outcomes to support disciplined decisions without pretending to remove uncertainty.
• Decision Context, Not Prediction — Decision context organizes what is known about market structure, history, timing and risk while leaving future outcomes uncertain.
• What Is Market Context? — Market context is the broader environment used to interpret an individual asset without judging it in isolation.
• What Is a Market Regime? — A market regime is Money Maker’s high-level interpretation of whether the monitored environment is constructive, selective, fragile, defensive or directionless.
• What Is a Signal Lifecycle? — A signal lifecycle is the complete dated period from a Money Maker signal opening through active monitoring and an eventual validated close.
• Active Signals vs Completed Signals — An active signal is still being monitored and has an unrealized, date-stamped outcome; a completed signal has a validated close and a fixed retrospective outcome.
• What Is Historical Evidence? — Historical evidence is a validated record of prior observations used to add context, not certainty, to a current decision.
• What Is Historical Edge? — Historical Edge describes the average completed outcome observed after comparable Money Maker signals in the relevant historical context.
• Why Sample Size Matters — Sample size is the number of valid observations supporting a historical statistic and determines how cautiously that statistic should be interpreted.
• Win Rate vs Average Return — Win rate measures how often completed observations were positive; average return measures their mean magnitude. Neither describes the full outcome distribution alone.
• What Is Residual Potential? — Residual Potential compares the current move with relevant average historical behavior to help assess how advanced an opportunity may be.
• Pullback Timing vs Pullback Completion — Pullback Timing describes temporal maturity relative to historical observations, while Pullback Completion describes price-correction depth relative to historical observations.
• What Is Investment Risk? — Investment risk is the possibility and potential severity of an unfavorable outcome across an asset, signal, position or portfolio.
• What Is Maximum Allocation? — Maximum Allocation is the highest portfolio weight Money Maker considers coherent with an asset’s broad setup and risk context.
• Signal Return vs Portfolio Return — A signal return describes one lifecycle; portfolio return reflects position sizes, cash, overlapping opportunities, constraints and the path of all holdings together.
• What Is Maximum Drawdown? — Maximum drawdown is the largest observed decline in portfolio equity from a prior peak to a subsequent trough within a stated period.